Is there a Stable-Bull situation cooking? In this insightful analysis of stablecoins, de-dollarization trends, and the GENIUS Act’s transformative impact on crypto markets, Malte Christensen, CEO and Founder of DAO Labs, delivers a bold forecast for 2026. Drawing on real-time data like USDC’s record growth and geopolitical shifts, the piece uncovers how President Trump’s policies could ignite a blockchain bull run amid USD challenges. Expertly blending macroeconomic critique with on-chain metrics, this forward-thinking perspective equips readers to navigate the next era of digital finance.
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MC — Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts that stablecoin payment flows could reach $56 trillion by 2030. It could happen a lot sooner. We hit $33 trillion in 2025.

USDC beats USDT in 2025 annual transfer activity. Trump coin and Solana create support. This scale up started almost exactly a year ago on January 17, 2025.

The Genius Act in July 2025 then created the foundation.

Now, if we take a look at the relationship between the FED and Trump:

• Trump showed Jerome the finger and overrides FED caution. Jerome was not happy in his recent interview on January 12, 2026.
• Trump wants cuts to boost the economy; Jerome hates cuts and wants to limit inflation.
• Trump resorts to a risky potential short-term mechanism that will nonetheless make his presidency historic and might be a bullish 2026 for blockchain.

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Why This Could Be Good

Who actually believes the US can settle their debts?

The United States can service its USD-denominated national debt indefinitely through its unique ability to print dollars and attract global buyers for Treasuries, though rising interest costs and deficits create long-term sustainability risks without policy changes.

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Biggest USD Reserves

Primary:

1st: China now ranks third at $731 billion — its lowest since 2008 — after sustained sales amid de-dollarization efforts.

2nd: Total foreign exchange reserves at ~$3.57 trillion (mostly USD but including euros, yen), far ahead of Japan’s $1.24 trillion.

Now, let us look at why China adopted the biggest USD reserves in the world in the first place:

Fall of the Asian Tigers, 1997, when the US wanted their loans back in a short time frame. The collapse began when the Thai national bank stopped printing Baht; banks defaulted and the dominoes started falling.

These emerging economy countries (by the 1990s), dependent on USD investment, cannot pay loans in USD back in time, so they need to use their own native currencies. China had to use Yuan at inflated rates, losing trillions adjusted to inflation in the process. Unemployment and social unrest followed.

This trauma led to USD adoption and depegging exports.

This was meant to create a safety net that relies on the stability of the dollar. However, the US printed more money in the last 10 years than since the abolishment of Bretton Woods and the gold standard in 1971. Now de-dollarization is in full swing.

Why are the top 10 countries of the world moving away from the Dollar? They don’t want to assume the risk.

• USD reserve holdings froze and effectively vaporized for Russia, further fueling Chinese hesitation to keep USD as reserve currency. Weaponization of sanctions further reservation towards holding the Dollar.
• China uses alternatives like Panda card since Visa and MasterCard become useless when sanctions hit.
• WeChat payments everywhere.
• China also started buying Saudi oil with Chinese yuan, ostracizing USD usage further. Other BRICS countries are on track to follow this example.

Why Is This Shift in Dominance So Attractive for Crypto?

Trump needs to replace the takers, and that requires hard incentives.

What Happened in the Last 7 Days

USDC saw +$1.04B net mints (supply to $65.5B), part of $2.12B total stablecoin expansion, creating “dry powder” for DeFi deployment.

Network distribution (not protocols): Ethereum mainnet +$801.9M, Tron +$1.03B (USDT-led), Arbitrum +$168M, Base +$166M — indicating L2/DEX/lending absorption but no per-protocol splits.

All of this in a decentralized playground. USDC needs to push out USDT and esp. TRC20 USDT in the long run. That’s where OTC happens, and that’s where it’s hard to keep tracing funds.

The role of USDC and other stablecoins carrying the interest for the USD deficit means they will experience an influx of liquidity. If they fit in Trump’s America, the potential outcome is BTC and altcoins capitalize on stablecoins carrying that interest. BTC is an interlinked asset with almost any meaningful liquidity.

Dash, an otherwise meaningless privacy coin, just experienced a 60% surge in a day, and when questioned by users, their simple reply was the partnership with Alchemy Pay. One might wonder if Alchemy, whose main USP it always was to access the ocean of Binance liquidity and essentially wash funds crosschain, is being used to funnel unregulated funds into the USDC scheme of Trump’s America. There is FOMO on the horizon when new players enter the market and inject liquidity. And this kickstarter will lead to all old established projects that still hold huge treasuries since they raised in ETH and BTC between 2016 and 2021 to enter the race. If you would have raised $10M USD in February 2016 when ETH was worth $5 USD, your yield of ETH would be at around $66 billion USD at the time of writing this article.

USD is still the best bet for the foreseeable future, and old and new liquidity racing to produce maximum yield in our otherwise failing economy could mean a new bull market.

GENIUS Act Mechanics

Signed July 2025, the law mandates 100% reserves in cash or Treasuries ≤93 days maturity for approved stablecoin issuers.

What does ≤93 days maturity mean?

Restricting reserves to Treasuries ≤93 days maturity is very harsh compared to industry norms, prioritizing ironclad liquidity over yield.

93 days aligns precisely with the Bank for International Settlements’ Level 1 High-Quality Liquid Assets definition, used in global banking stress tests — only T-bills, overnight repos, and cash qualify for this rating.

Traditional money market funds can hold up to 6 months maturity; Eurodollar markets trade 1-year paper. Stablecoin issuers lose ~1–2% yield chasing 3-month vs. 6-month T-bills, however they don’t need to lock up their money for long periods of time which matters, more in crypto.

Trump created a federal framework for dollar-backed “payment stablecoins” and required 100% reserves in cash or short-term U.S. Treasuries. Because of these rules, large stablecoin issuers (USDT, USDC, etc.) must hold huge amounts of T-bills and similar assets, making them a growing structural buyer of U.S. government debt rather than an alternative currency system outside it relying on China, import/export mechanics, and weaponized sanctions.

USDC (Circle) and USDT issuers buy T-bills via auctions/broker-dealers, with reserves held in custody at banks like BNY Mellon — turning global stablecoin demand into structural Treasury bids estimated at $1.6T over four years.

2025 stablecoin volume hit $33T (USDC-led), cementing this “digital dollar” as debt market support.

Meanwhile, crypto retail moves into dollar-backed stablecoins like USDC to earn yield via T-bill-based products.

Issuers like Circle invest USDC reserves (100% backed by short-term T-bills under GENIUS Act) and generate yields — Circle earned $711M from T-bill interest on $74B USDC in Q3 2025 alone, representing 96% of revenue.

Bottom Line: USDC Liquidity Impact on Crypto

Short-term question: Spike or sustained rally?

The Genius Act is fueling a wave of stablecoin issuance as users chase T-bill yields — pushing fresh liquidity into BTC and altcoins.

Long-term catch: Inflation is likely to erode real yields. By Q3 or Q4, offloading may begin as holders rotate out, potentially triggering sharp corrections. Stablecoins effectively carry the U.S. deficit’s interest burden, yet with inflation uncertain, both the USD and T-bill appeal may decline.

Short-term outcome:

• Stablecoin gold rush + Yield chase + Speculation = Bull market liquidity pump
• Both retail and institutional players are adding fuel.

Long-term risks:

• Inflation and capital off-ramping could drive a correction or crash.
• Most altcoins lack real utility or adoption — over 90% remain speculative.
• Policy shifts or macro shocks (e.g., China’s economy) could accelerate a Q3/Q4 selloff.
• A deeper drawdown could follow in later years under the Trump administration.

In the meantime, speculation rules — “buy the rumor, sell the fact” remains the law of crypto.

Crypto wins today as Trump’s T-bill policy offers a liquidity lifeline, but sanctions or inflation may soon flip the script.

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